Daniel Noboa, Ecuador’s center-right president, is facing re-election after 15 months in office.
His predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, called for early elections in 2023 amid impeachment proceedings over embezzlement accusations.
Mr. Noboa, 37, a Harvard Kennedy School graduate who comes from one of Ecuador’s wealthiest families, rose unexpectedly in the polls to win election and serve out the remainder of Mr. Lasso’s term.
At stake is the direction the troubled nation of nearly 18 million will take as it grapples with drug-fueled violence and high unemployment, issues that have sent tens of thousands of Ecuadoreans to the United States.
Why is this election important?
Five years ago, Mr. Noboa was a political unknown. He was elected to the country’s legislature in 2021 and served one term.
During the 2023 elections to replace Mr. Lasso, he rose from the bottom of the polls in the first round of voting to score a second-place victory after a strong debate performance. He then beat a leftist establishment candidate, Luisa González, in the second round.
Ms. González is running again and represents the party of a powerful former president, Rafael Correa, a polarizing figure in Ecuador. Many voters express nostalgia over the low violence and strong economy that characterized his presidency, while others remember his authoritarian style and his conviction on corruption charges.
For years Mr. Correa’s leftist movement has defined Ecuadorean politics, but some analysts say that if Mr. Noboa wins he has the potential to create a movement of his own.
Mr. Noboa’s party, which was formed less than a year ago, is predicted in polls to win about a third of the seats in the legislature — the same as Mr. Correa’s party.
Who are the top candidates?
Mr. Noboa was first elected on the back of a desperate desire for change following an explosion of insecurity in Ecuador and a particularly bloody 2023 election cycle, including the assassination of another presidential candidate.
Though violence, along with unemployment, remain high, he has leaned on a deft social media strategy to project an image of youth and vigor that has captivated many of his constituents.
In an effort to quell spiraling violence and an outbreak of prison riots, Mr. Noboa last year imposed a state of internal armed conflict, allowing the military to patrol the streets and prisons.
He also sent the police into the Mexican Embassy in Quito, the capital, to arrest a politician seeking refuge from a prison sentence for corruption, in what was considered a brazen breach of diplomatic protocol. Some analysts saw the moves as an overreach of presidential authority and a threat to civil liberties.
But his supporters see him as a bold leader willing to break the rules and stand up to corrupt forces. In April, Ecuadoreans endorsed his hard-line approach when they approved a referendum enshrining the increased military presence into law.
“He has to be firm to make people respect him,” said Jessica Navarro, 34, a taxi driver in Quito.
Ms. González, the political opponent, has been defined by her relationship to Mr. Correa, who handpicked her to represent his party.
“When Rafael Correa was there, he really supported us a lot,” said Edgar Escobar, 28, a nursing student who is supporting Ms. González. “I would like to go back to that country that we had before.”
But Ledy Zúñiga, a former justice minister who is running for the National Assembly with Ms. González’s party, pushed back against the notion that she represents the past.
“It is not about going back to the past,’’ she said. “People are still eight years later blaming the things that happen to a government that is no longer here. More than going back to the past, the issue is to have a team with experience and technical knowledge, because public administration is not easy.”
What are the main issues?
Ecuador is facing persistent violence, chronic unemployment and an energy crisis. January saw more violent deaths than any month in the past three years, according to police data.
A drought last year in a country that largely depends on hydroelectric energy caused daily 14-hour power cuts for about three months. The crisis threatened water, cell and internet service, shut down businesses and endangered entire industries.
Over the past five years, the drug-trafficking industry has expanded in Ecuador, drawing in international criminal groups and unleashing extraordinary levels violence in the once-peaceful nation.
But Mr. Noboa’s campaign has generally been defined more by image — the country has been flooded with cardboard cutouts of him — and less by specific policy proposals to address his country’s challenges.
Mr. Noboa often speaks vaguely about throwing “the old Ecuador” in the trash.
Ms. González has emphasized addressing the security crisis by strengthening Ecuador’s institutions like the justice, health and education system.
When will the results be known?
Ecuadorean presidential elections typically feature two rounds of voting, with the two top candidates in the first round facing off in a second round. To win the first round outright, a candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the votes, or 40 percent of the votes with a 10-point margin over the nearest rival.
Polls show Mr. Noboa in the lead ahead of Sunday’s election, with the possibility that he could win enough votes to avoid a runoff.
Voting starts at 7 a.m. Sunday and ends at 5 p.m. Results are expected to start coming in around 6 p.m.
Where can I find out more information?
Source: nytimes.com
